WN 2815 · MCO → STL

departs 7:27 PM ET · arrives 9:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±1 pts −23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,367 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,420 ft Visibility4.4 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2815 · MCO → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?