Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2818
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2818 · MDW → MCO
departs 11:00 AM CT · arrives 2:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 9/30 30%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
11am departures from MDW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.92 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.