WN 2821 · MCO → FLL

departs 10:38 AM ET · arrives 11:51 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
38%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip2.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2821 · MCO → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?