WN 285 · AUS → BWI

departs 5:17 PM CT · arrives 10:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 5pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility7.33333 mi Precip1.66 in

BWI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 285 · AUS → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?