WN 2860 · MEM → DEN

departs 6:11 AM CT · arrives 7:44 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ MEM is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from MEM are usually not late

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2860 · MEM → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?