WN 2866 · ATL → MDW

departs 2:06 PM ET · arrives 3:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2866 · ATL → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?