WN 2872 · MKE → STL

departs 5:51 PM CT · arrives 7:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,367 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

↓ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.09 in

STL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,420 ft Visibility4.4 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2872 · MKE → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?