Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2883
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2883 · MDW → SAN
departs 2:15 PM CT · arrives 4:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
2pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.