Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2897
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2897 · MDW → SMF
departs 6:55 PM CT · arrives 9:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 29%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 66% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 67% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.