Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2904
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 2904 · MDW → STL
departs 6:00 PM CT · arrives 7:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 34%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 25%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±7 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.78 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2.66667 mi Precip 0.58 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.