WN 290 · AUS → CVG

departs 4:11 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 4pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

CVG (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 290 · AUS → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?