Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2921
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 2921 · DAL → STL
departs 5:25 PM CT · arrives 7:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 37%
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 66% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 3.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,367 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
5pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 3.06 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,420 ft Visibility 4.4 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.