Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2934
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2934 · LAS → SFO
departs 7:35 AM PT · arrives 9:10 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 9/30 28%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 28%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 63% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.