WN 2940 · SMF → STL

departs 1:31 PM PT · arrives 7:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,420 ft Visibility4.4 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2940 · SMF → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?