WN 2954 · MDW → PHL

departs 4:41 PM CT · arrives 7:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from MDW are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2954 · MDW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?