Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2955
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2955 · MKE → PHX
departs 8:25 PM CT · arrives 10:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 31%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at MKE that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.09 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.