WN 2959 · MDW → PHX

departs 6:16 PM CT · arrives 7:49 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 6pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2959 · MDW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?