Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2964
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2964 · DAL → LAS
departs 7:25 AM CT · arrives 8:10 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 9%
Mon 10/5 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.69 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.