WN 2971 · MDW → RDU

departs 3:41 PM CT · arrives 6:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

74% chance · ±0 pts +24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
45%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 3pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.33 in

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2971 · MDW → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?