Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2978
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2978 · PHX → SJC
departs 7:45 AM MT · arrives 9:40 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 3%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 5%
Sat 10/3 5%
Mon 10/5 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SJC at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.