WN 2986 · OAK → MDW

departs 12:01 AM PT · arrives 6:11 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Other factors

↑ OAK is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2986 · OAK → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?