WN 3002 · MDW → TPA

departs 5:06 AM CT · arrives 8:43 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ MDW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MDW are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

TPA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3002 · MDW → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?