Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3004 · MSY → LAX
departs 3:30 PM CT · arrives 5:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 37%
Mon 10/5 33%
Tue 10/6 29%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at LAX that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.