WN 3015 · AUS → LGB

departs 4:56 PM CT · arrives 6:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
14%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 4pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,033 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.55 in

LGB (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3015 · AUS → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?