WN 3032 · PHX → RDU

departs 10:01 AM MT · arrives 5:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3032 · PHX → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?