Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3049
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3049 · MCO → RIC
departs 3:20 PM ET · arrives 5:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 35%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
RIC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.