WN 3054 · HOU → MEM

departs 10:26 AM CT · arrives 12:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MEM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.73 in

MEM (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3054 · HOU → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?