Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3095
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3095 · LAS → TPA
departs 12:55 PM PT · arrives 8:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 33%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.