WN 309 · MDW → LGA

departs 7:36 PM CT · arrives 10:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 7pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 309 · MDW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?