WN 3145 · OAK → SAN

departs 2:31 PM PT · arrives 4:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from OAK are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi forecast at OAK that day

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3145 · OAK → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?