Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3157 · DEN → PHL
departs 10:30 AM MT · arrives 4:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 9/30 26%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 29%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.