WN 3161 · OAK → DEN

departs 8:11 AM PT · arrives 11:51 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at OAK that day

↑ OAK is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from OAK are usually not late

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3161 · OAK → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?