Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3171
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 3171 · MDW → AUS
departs 6:20 PM CT · arrives 8:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 45%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
85%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
85%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 85% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
85%
Yes 85%
No 15%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 61% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
14%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
36%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 2.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.