Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3174
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3174 · MCO → HOU
departs 9:40 AM ET · arrives 11:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 14%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are usually not late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.