Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3187
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3187 · ORF → MDW
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.