WN 3191 · OAK → PHX

departs 3:36 PM PT · arrives 5:37 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at OAK that day

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3191 · OAK → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?