Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3221
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3221 · PHL → DEN
departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 6:50 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Wed 9/30 68%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 44%
Sat 10/3 32%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.