WN 3222 · MDW → SMF

departs 9:51 AM CT · arrives 12:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↑ MDW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

SMF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3222 · MDW → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?