Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3224
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3224 · PHL → MDW
departs 11:20 AM ET · arrives 12:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 9/30 24%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 18%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±5 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.92 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.