WN 3236 · SFO → SAN

departs 8:41 AM PT · arrives 10:21 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 48% of the time recently

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3236 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?