WN 3283 · ONT → SMF

departs 6:25 AM PT · arrives 7:59 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ ONT is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ONT (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3283 · ONT → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?