Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3286 · DEN → PHL
departs 2:05 PM MT · arrives 7:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 36%
Sat 10/3 26%
Mon 10/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±6 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.16 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.