WN 3422 · SAN → SEA

departs 7:26 AM PT · arrives 10:19 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 7% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3422 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?