Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3428
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 3428 · RDU → DEN
departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 6:40 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.