WN 3431 · MCO → SJU

departs 7:01 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM AT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at MCO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3431 · MCO → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?