Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 3469 · RSW → MDW
departs 11:40 AM ET · arrives 1:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 20%
Sat 10/3 16%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
11am departures from RSW are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 44 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.79 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.