Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3475
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3475 · SAN → AUS
departs 7:45 AM PT · arrives 12:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 30%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5.66667 mi Precip 1.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.