Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3476 · SAN → AUS
departs 4:20 PM PT · arrives 9:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 2.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.