WN 3481 · PIT → PHX

departs 7:51 PM ET · arrives 9:09 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ PIT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PIT (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3481 · PIT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?