WN 3496 · TUS → LAS

departs 9:16 AM MT · arrives 10:50 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS

Weather at each end

TUS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3496 · TUS → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?